Analyzing global e-commerce trends: top growing and declining markets
- 13 days ago
- 4 min read
E-commerce saw explosive growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, with brick-and-mortar stores closing and digital platforms becoming a lifeline for both businesses and consumers. But, as we revealed in a previous analysis, the surge came with a caveat: many of the online stores created in 2020 and 2021 proved to be short-lived. Within just two years, a significant portion of these new digital storefronts had gone offline, unable to sustain operations, customer interest, or both.
Although the pandemic might have been the peak for online stores, e-commerce is far from a fading trend. It’s the way we shop online is simply evolving. Influencer-led commerce, live shopping streams on platforms like TikTok and Instagram, and the increasing dominance of online marketplaces have all become powerful engines of digital retail. Major players such as Amazon and Walmart continue to expand their platforms into broader ecosystems, allowing third-party sellers to reach global audiences while capturing a slice of online spending.
E-Commerce today: a look at the web
To understand where e-commerce stands today, we analyzed global data over the past 10 months, focusing on the number of active e-commerce websites across regions. The overall number of global e-commerce sites has remained relatively stable in the past seven months. Figure 1 shows newly detected online stores (shown in blue) and the number of online stores that disappeared in that month (orange). The dark line shows the overall change—an amount close to zero in most months. But stability at the surface masks important regional shifts that reflect deeper economic, technological, and consumer behavior trends.
The monthly growth in the number of e-commerce websites across continents, measured relative to June 2024, reveals varied regional dynamics (see Figure 2). North America and Europe experienced moderate increases, perhaps reflecting an already mature digital commerce ecosystem.
Asia, on the other hand, showed the most pronounced growth, with figures peaking at nearly 28% above the June baseline, signaling an uptake of online retail infrastructure. This surge highlights the region's accelerating digital adoption, driven by factors such as rising digital payment solutions and the expansion of local logistics networks. Asia is home to over 60% of the global population, and its digital economy is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years, particularly in Southeast Asia and India.
South America's trajectory was more volatile, with some months showing a slight contraction, likely influenced by regional market fluctuations or infrastructural limitations. Oceania maintained relatively consistent gains, gradually increasing by over 11% by March 2025. These trends illustrate how different global regions are engaging with e-commerce at varying speeds, shaped by local economic conditions, digital readiness, and consumer demand.
Top growing e-commerce markets
Next, we take a closer look at the data country by country. In Figure 3, you can see the top 10 countries with the fastest-growing number of e-commerce websites, as well as the lowest 10 countries. The top countries are United Arab Emirates (AE), Saudi Arabia (SA), Egypt (EG), Philippines (PH), India (IN), Indonesia (ID), Peru (PE), Turkey (TR), Albania (AL), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (BA).
Of these top 10, many are emerging or frontier markets where digital commerce is still expanding rapidly. In the Middle East, governments have prioritized digital transformation. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have launched initiatives like Vision 2030, investing in infrastructure, fintech, and logistics to support e-commerce. Egypt has also seen a boom in mobile commerce, supported by improved connectivity and financial inclusion programs.
India and Indonesia, two of Asia’s largest economies, continue to benefit from expanding internet access, youthful populations, and growing digital payment adoption. Platforms like Flipkart, Shopee, and Tokopedia are reshaping shopping habits across the region. Similarly, countries like the Philippines and Turkey are seeing increased digital entrepreneurship, where small businesses are turning to e-commerce platforms to reach both local and international consumers.
Declining e-commerce activity: countries losing ground
Not all countries are seeing a digital retail boom. The countries with the largest relative decline in active e-commerce websites are Ukraine (UA), Singapore (SG), Brazil (BR), the Netherlands (NL), Canada (CA), Argentina (AR), Malaysia (MY), Germany (DE) and Russia (RU). Finland (FI) is among the bottom 10, but actually shows a 1% growth over the past 10 months.
Several factors help explain these downturns. Ukraine continues to face wartime disruptions, making it difficult for small businesses to maintain operations online. Russia has seen tightening internet controls and sanctions, which have affected access to global platforms and payments.
In countries like Germany and the Netherlands, where large retailers dominate, smaller e-commerce players may struggle with competition and rising operational costs. Argentina and Brazil have experienced macroeconomic challenges, including inflation and currency devaluation, making online retail difficult to sustain for small businesses.
Malaysia has faced regulatory shifts and increased market saturation, leading to consolidation among online sellers. Singapore, despite being a tech hub, is a small market with limited expansion space, and its e-commerce growth may be stabilizing after years of early adoption.
E-commerce isn’t going anywhere, but it is changing. While the global number of e-commerce websites has remained stable, growth has clearly shifted toward emerging markets, particularly in Asia and parts of the Middle East. Mature markets like North America and Europe seem to be stagnating, while others are seeing contractions influenced by war, economic instability, or market saturation.
As digital infrastructure continues to improve and consumer behaviors evolve, the shape of global e-commerce will keep adapting. What’s clear is that while the growth of the pandemic may have subsided, the momentum behind online retail remains —just more nuanced and regionally diverse.
